feat: realistic budget, EUR trade size in Discord, confidence analytics

- config: starting equity 10k→100 EUR, max_position_pct 20%→10%, min_order 25→5 EUR
- discord: show invested EUR amount (💶 Einsatz) in trade_open embed
- dashboard: add Analytics tab with win-rate by confidence bucket

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

config.yaml

@@ -3,15 +3,15 @@ interval_minutes: 15
 timeframes: [15m, 1h, 4h]
 ohlcv_limit: 200
 
-starting_equity_eur: 10000  # Demo-Startkapital (nur für lokale Buchführung)
+starting_equity_eur: 100  # Demo-Startkapital (nur für lokale Buchführung)
 
 risk:
-  max_position_pct: 0.20
+  max_position_pct: 0.10
   max_open_positions: 2
   stop_loss_atr_mult: 2.0
   take_profit_atr_mult: 3.0
   daily_loss_limit_pct: 0.05
-  min_order_eur: 25
+  min_order_eur: 5
 
 ai:
   mode: ensemble  # ensemble (beide Voter müssen sich einig sein) | single (nur voter_a)

src/aitrader/dashboard/app.py

@@ -23,8 +23,8 @@ def load_df(stmt) -> pd.DataFrame:
     return pd.DataFrame([r.model_dump() for r in rows])
 
 
-tab_overview, tab_trades, tab_decisions, tab_ai = st.tabs(
-    ["Overview", "Trades", "Decisions", "AI-Vergleich"]
+tab_overview, tab_trades, tab_decisions, tab_ai, tab_analytics = st.tabs(
+    ["Overview", "Trades", "Decisions", "AI-Vergleich", "Analytics"]
 )
 
 with tab_overview:
@@ -110,3 +110,54 @@ with tab_ai:
         st.caption(
             "Hinweis: Nur Ticks bei denen beide BUY/SELL mit ausreichender Confidence stimmen führen zu Trades."
         )
+
+with tab_analytics:
+    st.subheader("Confidence-Analytics")
+    df_d = load_df(select(Decision))
+    df_t = load_df(select(Trade))
+    if df_d.empty or df_t.empty:
+        st.info("Noch zu wenig Daten — mindestens ein abgeschlossener Trade nötig.")
+    else:
+        # Decisions mit abgeschlossenen Trades joinen
+        closed = df_t[df_t["status"] == "closed"][["decision_id", "pnl_eur"]].dropna()
+        merged = df_d.merge(closed, left_on="id", right_on="decision_id", how="inner")
+
+        if merged.empty:
+            st.info("Noch keine abgeschlossenen Trades mit verknüpften Decisions.")
+        else:
+            merged["won"] = merged["pnl_eur"] > 0
+            merged["avg_confidence"] = (merged["voter_a_confidence"] + merged["voter_b_confidence"]) / 2
+
+            # Confidence-Buckets
+            bins = [0.0, 0.65, 0.75, 0.85, 1.01]
+            labels = ["0.60–0.65", "0.65–0.75", "0.75–0.85", "0.85–1.0"]
+            merged["conf_bucket"] = pd.cut(merged["avg_confidence"], bins=bins, labels=labels)
+            bucket_stats = (
+                merged.groupby("conf_bucket", observed=True)
+                .agg(trades=("won", "count"), win_rate=("won", "mean"), avg_pnl=("pnl_eur", "mean"))
+                .reset_index()
+            )
+            bucket_stats["win_rate"] = (bucket_stats["win_rate"] * 100).round(1)
+            bucket_stats["avg_pnl"] = bucket_stats["avg_pnl"].round(2)
+
+            st.markdown("#### Win-Rate nach Confidence-Bucket (Ø beider Voter)")
+            st.dataframe(bucket_stats, use_container_width=True)
+
+            fig_conf = px.bar(
+                bucket_stats,
+                x="conf_bucket",
+                y="win_rate",
+                text="win_rate",
+                labels={"conf_bucket": "Ø Confidence", "win_rate": "Win-Rate (%)"},
+                color="win_rate",
+                color_continuous_scale=["#E74C3C", "#F1C40F", "#2ECC71"],
+            )
+            fig_conf.update_traces(texttemplate="%{text:.1f}%", textposition="outside")
+            st.plotly_chart(fig_conf, use_container_width=True)
+
+            # Gesamtstatistik
+            st.markdown("#### Gesamt")
+            col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3)
+            col1.metric("Trades mit Decision", len(merged))
+            col2.metric("Ø Win-Rate", f"{merged['won'].mean() * 100:.1f}%")
+            col3.metric("Ø Confidence bei Wins", f"{merged[merged['won']]['avg_confidence'].mean():.2f}" if merged["won"].any() else "—")

src/aitrader/notify/discord.py

@@ -91,10 +91,11 @@ def notify_decision(settings: Settings, symbol: str, ensemble, label_a: str, lab
     )
 
 
-def notify_trade_opened(settings: Settings, trade) -> None:
+def notify_trade_opened(settings: Settings, trade, qty_eur: float = 0.0) -> None:
     if not _should(settings, "trade_open"):
         return
     side_emoji = "📈" if trade.side == "buy" else "📉"
+    invested = qty_eur or trade.qty * trade.entry_price
     _post(
         settings,
         {
@@ -102,8 +103,9 @@ def notify_trade_opened(settings: Settings, trade) -> None:
             "color": COLOR_GREEN if trade.side == "buy" else COLOR_RED,
             "fields": [
                 {"name": "Side", "value": trade.side.upper(), "inline": True},
+                {"name": "💶 Einsatz", "value": f"**{invested:.2f} EUR**", "inline": True},
                 {"name": "Qty", "value": f"{trade.qty:.6f}", "inline": True},
-                {"name": "Entry", "value": f"{trade.entry_price:.2f} EUR", "inline": True},
+                {"name": "Entry", "value": f"{trade.entry_price:.2f} USD", "inline": True},
                 {
                     "name": "Stop-Loss",
                     "value": f"{trade.stop_loss:.2f}" if trade.stop_loss else "—",

src/aitrader/trader/executor.py

@@ -69,5 +69,5 @@ def execute_trade(
         sl=sl,
         tp=tp,
     )
-    discord.notify_trade_opened(settings, trade)
+    discord.notify_trade_opened(settings, trade, qty_eur=qty_eur)
     return trade